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Who The Hell Is J. R.
Gamblers BEAT the Pro Football Pointspread
Test Your Sports
Something I Learned
From Sonny Reizner
A Crash Course In
Vigorish - And It's Not 4.55%
Top 10 Ways To Lose
The Best Way To Gamble
Could YOU Be A
Great Gambling Stories
Results of Picks in Professional Gambler Newsletter
Sports Betting Money
Something I Learned
from Sonny Reizner
We've come to know Dan Fahey through emails as a successful professional-level sports bettor. This email from Dan is worthy of being an article in itself. Beginning bettors and veterans alike can profit from Dan's words.
J.R. and J.V.~ You are one of the few men that I truly believe see the sports betting world as I do. In a world riddled with fallacies and mis-information, it is comforting to find someone who "gets it".
Here's what I mean, judging from your web site and articles...If anything I express here has any value to other subscribers, please be my guest and share it in any form. I am in the mood to write and give it to someone that "gets it."
1.) Sport wagering may be one of the last of the true markets. Sides and totals being bought and sold based on a true and real case of supply and demand. No market makers, no specialists. Just an attempt to split action and we are free to agree, disagree, or pass. If I bet the lowly Jets, at least I have an idea of what I'm getting into. I have stats, history, motivation factors, and some relevant (Careful) trends to consider...If I buy Home Depot stock, who knows what might go on in those Boardrooms.
My non-betting friends are astonished that I often and frequently report that sports wagering (with a good book and honest, reputable advice) is the most honest and potentially lucrative pass-time I know of. I turned a small sum this year into a significant amount of dough. I'm still not sure my non-betting friends believe it. They likely never will.
2.) Betting on Sports is Hard Work and requires more than one type of discipline. Whether you are following J.V.'s picks or betting your own, you will "pay" a price for your money. Bad emotions will pay you a visit, and quite often. Stress, worry, greed, fear, regret, and especially childishness will all play a part. Miller and Mccune taught me an invaluable lesson that is worth millions if you can truly adopt it: "You can only win slowly, and you can only lose quickly."
I believe McCunes words were something along the lines of "so many ways to lose, so few ways to win." Maybe one bettor of 1,000 believe this.
I personally "win" only when 2 things happen: One, I put the hard work in and I bet much less per bet than I think I ought to, and never vary it. Two, go back and re-read # 1. I have a real amount that's in an actual account and I risk about 0.75% per bet. That's three-quarters of one percent of my total actual bankroll. Most guys have maybe $500 in their account and risk maybe $100 per bet. They usually last about as long as the current weather report.
Here's where some of the discipline and hard work comes in: See if you have the work ethic and discipline to keep your bet the same size after you go 0 and 12. Can you avoid the temptation to press? To make a huge plunge bet? We've all done it. And, sooner or later, it loses. Do you have the discipline it takes to stick with the proper bet amount? Can you handle being down for the week? Can you handle it or are you just another wanna be? Are you mature enough to understand that this endeavor has almost nothing to do with sports or gambling or handicapping...It has everything to do with being a good business person.
If you owned a restaurant and had a Friday Fish Special for $8.99 and no one ordered it, would you keep doubling the price through the weekend until someone finally bought it? C'mon that's what most bettors do. They try to force a winning day, to save the weekend!
My advice is to read, to dig in and read. Learn. Re-read every article on J.V.'s web site, ten times. There is no free money. You will not make money in this game without working for it. Whether you want to be a lawyer or an architect or an accountant, you've got to go to school, and it's the same for being a successful sports bettor.
Recognize that hard work comes in different forms. For one thing, get 5 or more outs. It's work. Shop lines. It's work. Keep reading. It's work. Order the books and actually read them and apply the info. It's work. This ain't about picking tonight's winner, guys. Work to find what others are too lazy to find. Get off your ass and go to work.
3.) Quit betting solely to go against the crowd. This was an expensive lesson for me, personally. I went through a costly phase where, in an attempt to be a renegade handicapper, I simply bet on things that no reasonable bettor would bet. After all, I was now an expert, and that meant betting on teams and situations that could not possibly win in the eyes of the average bettor. That's how the wiseguys win, right?
Sort of. To be successful in the sports wagering game, you must sometimes be a contrarian. That's a fact. However, if it was as simple as going against the crowd at every juncture, sound fundamentals and record keeping would be meaningless. They're not. Sorting out the BS from what really determines pointspread outcomes is an invaluable skill to acquire. Get that skill from working your tail off, see above.
There are "square plays" that are the right side, where you agree with the vast majority of bettors. There are other plays when you feel as if you're the only one in the world on them. My personal experience is that success comes from finding what I call "edgy bets". What the heck are edgy bets? Edgy bets are the bets that you know why everyone in the betting world are on one side, but your observations tell a story that suggest those reasons are inflated and embellished. You "get" why everyone is there, but you have valid reasons to believe that the primary motive for their play - (ESPN hype, media infallibility, a "dueness" to win, etc.) - is tainting the real value of the wager. Dig in and learn about these situations.
I feel as if I have 10,000 lessons that I could share....so many experiences that could save fellow bettors thousands of dollars. I'm no guru, but I bet I could help a lot of bettors' bankrolls, if they;d just listen. I can't keep going and not share these lessons with someone.
Thanks for everything, you guys have changed my life for the better, win or lose. You did the hard work. The real work. The math. The stat analysis. Jeffery Albritton's work. Binomial Distribution. The flat betting proofs. All the stuff I couldn't have figured out, you did. And that is just the best thing ever, outside of finding friends you can trust.
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