you use a 'Star' betting system you'd better like stars, alright. You're
going to be sleeping under them."
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Mark Twain said, "It ain't what we know
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true." Losers know a lot that ain't true.
A Good Handicapper...Broke
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from Gamblers pages
01 02 03 04 05 06
“Dear J.V., I just want to thank you for doing what you do and
to attest that this really works. I’m a success story. My bank roll is about
$40,000 and I’m not growing it anymore. I pay myself everything that I win as
a second income, but I don’t let my bankroll drop. I bet $1,000 a game and I
don’t change it. I never thought I’d be betting $1,000 a game when I started.
Thank you. You walk the walk and talk the talk. You are welcome to use my
name.” Ben Nguyen, New York City, NY.
Thanks Ben, and I appreciate your business the last 2 years.
Success stories like yours are common. With that said, I’d like to bring to
your attention your bet size. With a $40,000 bank, your bet size should not
exceed $800 (2%). Eventually, per the law of numbers, a losing streak will
clean your clock. You cannot tolerate that much risk. Of those genuine
professional-level sports bettors I've known, most would never risk more than
two percent of their working bankroll on any single bet, and all of them usually
risk much less than that. The general consensus seems to be about one
“Dear J.V., I just renewed for 6 months and just want to say
thanks. I love the service. W.P – Plains, TX
“J.V., My bankroll increased 25% and I upped my bet size!
Finally! I am so proud! Thank you for walking me through step by step. It
took 7 months but I did it. This is terrific.” S.D. – Kansas City, KS
Congratulations. First, so everyone knows what we’re
talking about, our money management strategy dictates betting no more than 1%
to 2% of your bankroll per bet. We teach ‘flat’ betting – betting the same
amount on all bets. When your bankroll increases (or decreases) 25%, you
‘reset’ your bet size to 1% to 2% of your new bankroll. One thing I do that
is unique and rather arguable is that I never lower my bet. If you vary the
bet, your breakeven goes up. I bet 1% unit. After three decades of personal
experience, and four decades of family experience, I’m comfortable that I can
ride through a losing streak. If you lose 10 games at $200 a bet and lower
the bet to $180, you must win 12.2 bets to get back to even. That is how I
get my 100% annual ROI. My actual bet goes up during the year as my bankroll
reaches higher plateaus. Great job!
“J.V., I read an article earlier in the season about sportsbooks
in Las Vegas getting worried about Kansas City winning the World Series
because they had booked futures at 100-1 odds. And here we are that
might happen. So do you think the casinos will somehow rig the game to make
the Royals lose?” Jedd K., Little Rock, AR
No. And I doubt it was ever 100 to 1 odds. The most I
am aware of is around 25 to 1. It’s not like the old days. Vegas
doesn’t fix games. People would go to prison.
“Dear J.V., What if I doubled my bet every time I lost until I
won? Then I’d start over at one unit. I could never lose, right?” D.
O. St. Louis, MO
Wrong. With all progressive betting schemes the ratio
of risk rises or falls in direct proportion to the ratio of
"guaranteed" profit. This fact includes the Kelly criterion, star
betting systems, Martingale systems, double-up systems, etc. On paper, the
promise of profit is essentially absolute – but the reality is the potential
for disaster is absolute. Over a relatively short period of time you will
invariably go broke due to the law of numbers (binomial distribution). What
happens when you lose 12 in a row with a $100 unit, your bet size is now
$409,600. Even if you could bankroll this bet size, you will never get the
chance because you will bump up against betting limits. 12 wins or losses in
a row happens more often than you think.
“Hello J.V., Just dropping you a note to say thanks for
exceeding my expectations. You are an honest man in a desert of snakes.” Bill
W., Salt Lake City, UT
“Dear J.V., I keep wondering why you keep harping about money
management. Do you sell that advice too?” J.C., St. Louis, MO
Nope. Our money management advice is free and throughout our
website. We also don’t sell advertising space on our website or on our
materials. We don’t accept revenue from sportsbooks because we think it’s a
conflict of interest. We do not participate in bettors’ losses. We
don’t sell your name and personal information, we don’t telemarket,
and we don’t offer ‘inside circles’ or ‘step-up prices’ or any other
gimmicks. We sell our newsletter
and our books at our Order
page. Our only income is from helping you win. We know if our picks are not
profitable for you, you’ll stop paying for them…if you’re not successful we
lose your business. Simple as that.
J.V., Who bets on
Washington and for the under when Ely Manning is QB’ing
for the Giants at home? You’re a f**king moron.
Sometimes it looks
that way – goes with the territory.
To J.V., What can I say? You are a true professional and a
consummate pro. I followed your Dad for years during which I developed a
great respect for him. It always deeply saddened me when JR would suddenly go
on "vacation" in the middle of a season. I knew that he probably
was experiencing yet another health episode. That being said, however, I
would respectfully have to say that you are undoubtedly a better handicapper
than JR. Although I never met him, you appear to be a throwback to Uncle RJ.
In this case, the apple did not fall close to the tree, the apple is the tree
- only better. At the rate you are going this season, in a 2100 proposition
year, you will have produced more than 300 units! Betting 2% of one's stake
that will produce a 600% return on investment (ROI). Your
"competition" is attempting to charge as much as $50 per pick,
which is usually wrong. Nobody - I repeat nobody - posts daily picks like
you. Thank you for running the Professional Gambler.com webpage in such a
dramatic and successful manner. Now, if you could only do something about the
stock market. Warmest regards, John Levy” firstname.lastname@example.org
John, thank you very much. I know you knew my dad and I’ve
come to know you’re one of the brightest minds in professional-level
handicapping. I’m honored by your comments and support. We are experiencing a
winning streak and we cannot sustain this level of winning. Enjoy it! But,
remember it when we have a losing streak. Lol. As you know, I regard my dad
as the best sports bettor in the world, not to mention the best father. Our
winning percentage is higher than ever before, but it’s still my dad’s
winning percentage. Our winning percentage would not exist without all
that I learned from my dad and the old Vegas pros – Lem
Banker, Bob McCune, Jack Painter, Sony Reisner, and
others. These trailblazers conceived the tried-and-true, timeless,
fundamentals on which today’s cutting edge, technological advancement are
based. They formed the groundwork and developed the classic methods and
teachings that comprise the core formulas used by our proprietary,
statistics-based computer models. The reason previous generations rarely
exceeded a 55-56% winning percentage is because of ‘winning percentage
ceilings’ resulting from the barrier to analyzing mass amounts of real-time
data. Today we break through these ceilings and generate However, our
technological contributions have broken through and generate consistent ROI
higher than the sports betting community has ever enjoyed.
“J.V., I had a few bad experiences buying picks from “touts.” I
remember fighting with the wife, being really frustrated one day… staring
into a blank computer screen when I typed “professional sports gambling” in
google. Your company (ProfessionalGambler.com) popped up first on the list. The
rest is history. And so’s the wife.” Chuck R., Miami, FL
Ha! Thanks Chuck. And the marriage advice is
J.V., I admire your
honest approach to the whole professional gambling business. Thank you. I
have been a full time sports bettor for nearly 10 years and you have inspired
me to stop being embarrassed about it. - Brian Y
Thank you Brian and I
appreciate your business.
There is not one…not one
single handicapper who does what you do. NOBODY posts games when they start.
Wonder why that is? Tyrel J.
I don’t know, Tyrel,
but what’s more puzzling is who would do business with a service that doesn’t
post picks moments after games start but BEFORE the games are over. How does
anyone ever know their record? In today’s world everyone can post their
plays like we do at our Track Us page - moments after
games begin, monitored by the world – win or lose. Make everyone do it.
Good morning J.V., Great
day yesterday, as always. The newsletter was a perfect example of how you
delve very deeply into the psyche of professional sports, especially with the
brilliant analysis of the pathetic Sabathia
situation in New York. In any event, J. V., as long as you are able to
successfully integrate such sophisticated mathematical models together with a
profound understanding of human psychology, you will continue to be
unbeatable. Developing a slight edge based on the idiosyncrasies of an
umpire's strike zone is very impressive. B. Q.
Thank you for the
compliment. Indeed, a professional bettor has got to understand and analyze
lots of variables. Thank you very much for your support and analysis.
“Hey J.V. (Tout’s name excluded)
does the radio show from the (casino name excluded), and he was saying some
messed up things about you on the radio. Do you know him? I bet one phone
call from you (or a member from your family) would shut him up. He is pretty
nasty.” Frank. B.
Sure, I know
him. He’s a well-known tout who makes a living bolstering progressive
betting schemes to newcomers, beginners, and other unsuspecting people.
He promotes a particular kind of star betting system that claims if you start
NFL season at $50 a bet, you’ll be betting $500 a bet by the playoffs. I’m
bad for business for this guy and others because I call them on the carpet
and expose their unscrupulous tactics. They’re not professional sports
bettors. A legendary Vegas pro bettor, Jack Painter, once said “if you like
star betting…good…you’ll be sleeping under them.” Only ‘flat’ betting –
keeping your bets the same - will be profitable in the long term. As
for bad-mouthing me, I have no interest in getting down in the mud with him
or anyone else. Thank you for your letter.
“In the last 4 days, you’re 4-16. What are the chances of doing
this, and when do you plan on winning again?” Sayeed Z.
Fair question. There’s a 100% chance of both going 4-16 and
winning again. It’s the law of numbers. If we won 56% ATS, there is a 12.5%
(1 in 8) chance of going 4-16. This doesn’t mean we are performing
better or worse than our normal level of handicapping. Such results are
normal and natural fluctuations of the mathematics involved. See our free
article Binomial Distribution & You.
“Holy cow, I am amazed. Odell Beckham wasn’t cleared to play
again until 11:00 a.m. this morning, but I have an email from you at 2:13
a.m. divulging this situation. That’s freaking invaluable.” Tristan L.
Yeah it was a great bet. Too bad we didn’t win. Look, my
family has been doing this a long time. Good intelligence on the ground is
key in this business. There is no substitute for experience and being
well-connected. The latter only comes from the former. Although, watch out
for betting sites that proclaim to have inside information, as this is
a common ploy to sell picks. Our inside information is not a regular thing,
but it is legitimate.
“Hey man, rough patch the last few days, huh? Sorry, keep
your head up, you’re the best handicapper I know of.” -Rex M.
Thanks Rex. I fully expect these dips – no worries. It’s
why I bet only 1% of my bankroll and keep my bets flat. There is a very
tiny chance that I can go broke as long as my winning percentage stays over
53%. I have been over 55% - on average for many years. The trick is to be
ready for the ups and downs that are bound to occur simply due to the
mathematics of the situation. Surprises are for birthday parties and Cracker
Jack – not sports betting.
from Gamblers pages
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