A very important
thing to know
A Crash Course In
“You have got to be costing the offshore books some serious money. Do you worry about being hated by such a sleazy group of people?” - Earl B.
It's more complicated than that. In reality, you're not betting against the book; you're betting against the book's other customers. In sports betting, bookmakers merely act as brokers; they have no vested interest in the outcome of the game. All they need is plenty of action on both sides to balance their risks. As far as ‘sleazy,’ the gaming industry today is not like it used to be. When I grew up, most casinos were controlled by criminal enterprises. I’m not saying there’s not a small element of that today, but by far most casinos are owned by corporations. Corporations are not any less sleazy though.
“Congratulations! You should frame yesterday's picks and hang it on the wall. It was a Masterpiece!” --George P.
Thank you. We appreciate your business.
I’ve been a subscriber for a long time and I am grateful for your advice. NFL over/under bets is a lot of what I do. I’m interested in your take on the league’s new point after rules and how it affects totals. –S. P.
It’s a good question. Obviously, the league wants to promote exciting plays after touchdowns. 99.5% of point after kicks are successful. It’s become so un-eventful, in some cases, network television is breaking to commercial during the point-after kick. Reinstating the 2-point conversion has not helped. Just 59 two-point plays were attempted in 2014. Eventually no doubt the league will take measures to fix this wasted opportunity to add another exciting element to the game. But the NFL is very sensitive about making changes gradually. As for now, moving the line of scrimmage 13 yards is a baby step. We don’t think it will make much of a difference at this point.
Your (website) is an inspiration. I’ve learned so much over the past year. I’ve been wasting my time with other forms of gambling when sports wagering is really the only true way of making a buck. I've been tracking your progress since the beginning of this year and I have to admit I’m very impressed.” --J. G.
I just want to say what a great job on the Colorado/Wash. game! Thanks so much! You guys are good! I love the money management reminders at the end of the newsletter! :-) One of the many reasons that set you apart from your competition. Ok, you win a lot. That's pretty big too........ Thanks again!” T.W.
You’re welcome. Thank you for subscribing.
“Nobody thought it possible to run 1 mile under 4 mins for tens of years until Roger Banister broke the barrier. Now high school kids do it. You can hold a 60%. You have the skill, dedication of hard work to get it done. Thanks for doin what you do.” – J.L.
Excellent point. Thank you for your business.
“Obviously there is a disagreement over the Kelly Criterion. It makes sense it me, but I know you’re opposed to it. I am tempted to try it, but you’ve never let me down and I always regret falling for some sham. Can you explain it?” Armando, C., Mexico City
The Kelly Criterion is essentially a progressive betting system wherein the higher your probability of winning, the more you’re supposed to risk; the less your probability of winning, the less you’re supposed to risk. (Sounds reasonable, all right.) We won’t describe the Kelly system in detail here because it’s boring and it takes too long. What I can say is that none of the variations work - at least, not against sports betting. As applied to sports betting it would be better called the Kamikaze criterion.
I love your website and the Newsletter has been a lifesaver for years. I have to admit I don’t always keep my bets flat, and I think it is holding me back. I just don’t understand why changing the size of my bets is a bad thing. What difference does it make in the long run. Doesn’t it all work out the same. Sometimes I hear (tout’s name withheld)’s radio show from (casino withheld) only because they play it on the overhead speakers at work sometimes. He says horrible things about you and swears his systems work – but he never gives specific details. Obviously I don’t give any weight to (him). He’s a jackass. But, can you give a detailed explanation of how it’s bad to change bet size?” Mort. D - Pittsburgh, PA
Sure. One of the popular ideas peddled by this mouthy tout is to bet 5.5% of your bankroll and adjust the bets in order to continue risking that same pre-set 5.5% as your bankroll goes up and down. This is another hopeless progressive betting system that will cost you money, and you can prove it for yourself. It doesn't take long. Begin with a make-believe bankroll - say, $10,000 - and pick a specific percentage to use as your bet size. For worst case scenario, let’s say your win rate is right at the breakeven of 52.4%, which is the equivalent of 110 wins and 100 losses. Jot down any sequence at all of exactly 11 wins and 10 losses. Change the bet size after every win or loss so that the next bet is the same percentage of your new bankroll...Then fire away. If you could risk precisely 5.5 percent of your remaining capital after every bet, winning eleven bets and losing ten bets always leaves you with 97.1 percent of your original bankroll every time, no matter the sequence of wins and losses. After 110 wins and 100 losses with this strategy, you would lose approximately 25 percent of your original bankroll, - even though you won 52.4 percent of your bets.
To save you the time and trouble, here’s what it looks like:
Bet Size = 5.5% Win or
Bankroll: of bankroll: Loss:
$10,000.00 $550.00 to win $500.00 WIN
10,500.00 577.50 to win 524.95 LOSS
9,922.50 545.74 to win 496.12 WIN
10,418.62 573.02 to win 520.93 LOSS
9,845.60 541.53 to win 492.30 WIN
10,337.88 568.58 to win 516.89 LOSS
9,769.29 537.31 to win 488.47 WIN
10,257.76 564.19 to win 512.90 LOSS
9,693.59 533.15 to win 484.68 WIN
10,178.26 559.81 to win 508.91 LOSS
9,618.46 529.02 to win 480.92 WIN
10,099.38 555.47 to win 504.97 LOSS
9,543.92 524.92 to win 477.20 WIN
10,021.11 551.16 to win 501.05 LOSS
9,469.95 520.85 to win 473.50 WIN
9,943.45 546.89 to win 497.17 LOSS
9,396.56 516.81 to win 469.83 WIN
9,866.39 542.65 to win 493.32 LOSS
9,323.74 512.81 to win 466.19 WIN
9,789.92 538.45 to win 489.50 LOSS
9,251.48 508.83 to win 462.57 WIN
$ 9,714.05 = after 11 wins & 10 losses
It does not help that bad advice is everywhere. To begin, you must get out of your head the idea that effective money management is a matter of opinion. That's false. Given the size of your bankroll and given your long term winning expectation, there is only one bet size for your individual situation, which is between one and two percent of your bankroll, and there is only one betting strategy – flat betting. Changing the size of your bets in expensive. –J.V.
Professional Gamblers BEAT the Pro Football POINTSPREAD
How Professional Gamblers BEAT the Pro Football POINTSPREAD
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