Much like investing in stocks, you can't expect to make money every day at sports betting. Here's what you can expect.
R.J. Miller sheds light on the business of sports betting!
A Crash Course In
“J.V., I bet primarily NFL. How much does the weather affect the outcome of NFL games? It seems that betting overs in southern and western venues and betting unders in northern venues during the winter makes sense. Your thoughts?” Shiela M.
most certainly has an effect on football games – but it has NO EFFECT
on handicapping them. The betting
public and the linemakers take this into account. So, your proposed weather betting
strategy does not make sense and will not work. For instance, look at this chart of
average over-under results for NFL games: As you see, December is the only
month in which ‘over’ bets actually win more. This is precisely because of
bettors wanting to bet unders because they think the weather will cause lower
scores. (The weather does, but
the lines adjust down.)
over under under %
“J.V., I came across your website and have been having a good time reading all the articles.
I have a couple questions I hope you can help me with. First, in your opinion, to be a professional player, what size bankroll must you have? Should this bankroll size consist of all money you have liquid? And in your opinion, what are the chances of eventually losing 100% (playing 1% to 2%, and keeping the amount bet the same throughout, of your bankroll on each individual play) of your entire bankroll?
Second, you mentioned you hit on average 55%-58% winners. Does this go for all sports, all seasons, for as long as you have been handicapping sports? So you're saying you have never had a losing football season, or a losing baseball season, or a losing basketball season??
I consider myself a very fortunate person. I work for the greatest company in the world and make a decent living. I have lost, however, an incredible amount of money wagering on sports. I really wish I came across your web site earlier. My two main problems were chasing my losses (always wagering different amounts), and listening to different people/my own opinions/services and never staying consistent with how I determined which plays to make. What is your opinion of someone playing your plays and your plays only??” - Todd C.
Thank you for your interest. Your bankroll should consist of the maximum amount you are willing to lose in order to prove to yourself if sports betting is a thing for you. In other words, it doesn't matter if you have $20,000 if you're only willing to lose, say, $10,000. The size of your bets must be predicated on the amount you are willing to lose. If you're basing the size of your bets at 2% of $20,000, but you're only willing to lose $10,000, you're actually risking 4% of your 'bankroll' per bet. That would be suicide.
Risking 2% of your beginning bankroll is okay is you have another income you can live off of. With another income, the main goal of your sports betting is to make money; however, if sports betting is your only income the main goal changes. If sports betting is your only income the main goal is to avoid going broke. Those are two very different goals. That's why full time gamblers keep their bet size to about 1% or even less.
“Dear J.V., I recently bought your book (How Professional Gamblers Beat the Pro Football Pointspread) and once again must say thank you for all of the helpful info. I have a question about (NFL) over/unders. In your book you say "Consider placing a bet when your own prediction is three or more of those key numbers away from the posted line; -that is, when two or more of the numbers 30, 33, 37, 38, 41, 44, 45, 47, 48, or 51 'fit' between your prediction and the posted line, take a closer look at the bet. Then, as the posted line gets closer to either 37 or 51, you might consider being more willing to bet against the move, less willing to bet with the move". I am having trouble understanding exactly what you mean. I am trying to learn the gambling lingo and you are right that you guys do have you own language. What is betting against the move and what do you mean that I should consider placing a bet when three or more of the key numbers fit inside of my prediction? I may be just a little slow, but if you could define what you mean a little more it would really help me out. I bought Bob McCune's Education of a Sports Bettor from you web site last night and can't wait to read it. Thanks for all of your help.”
- Bruce S.
Bruce, By "placing a bet when 3 or more of the key numbers fit inside your prediction", I mean if the posted total line is, say, 47.5 and your own predicted total (according to the formula in the book) is, say, 43, notice that the key numbers 44, 45, and 47 "fit" between your forecast and the posted line. In other words, the game is very likely to land on one of those three key numbers, all of which would make your 'under' play a winner, even though your forecast is only 4.5 points away from the posted line. On the other hand, say the posted total line is 43.5 and your forecast is for the game to end with 38.5 total points. Your prediction is 5.0 points away from the posted line, but there is only 1 key number (41) between. Betting the 'under' in this case is riskier, even though your forecast is 5 points away from the posted line. To answer your second question, as the posted total gets closer to either '37' or '51' it gets 'easier' to beat. If the posted total is, say, 37.0, we often bet the 'over' even though our own prediction is for 38.0, or 37.5, or even 37.0 total points. And against a posted total of '51.0' we often take the 'under' even though our own forecast might be for 50.0 or 50.5 or even 51.0 total points. The 'compression' factors talked about in the book come into play as the posted line gets further and further away from the median total score of 42-43 total points. I hope this helps.
“Dear J.V., I bought your dad’s book (How Professional Gamblers Beat the Pro Football Pointspread. In the article your Uncle R.J. wrote about positive universes (NFL Positive Universes) he mentions the use of a "field rating".
Firstly, what is a field rating, and secondly what methods do you use to assign a field value. Thanks for your time...I'm all ears.” - Brendan
"Field rating" is just another word for saying "home field bias", or "home field advantage". It's the difference between a team's margin of victory on the road and their margin of victory at home. It averages about 3.0 points for the NFL as a whole, but varies all the way from -3.5 points to +13.0 points. The Broncos and the Packers have often had double-digit home advantages, the Saints and Falcons have often had a ‘negative’ home advantage (home disadvantage).
“Dear ProfessionalGambler.com, First off I just want to say that your website is absolutely amazing. This is no exaggeration, I have literally read every single article on your site. Right now I am a financial advisor with Edward Jones. Frankly, I hate my job because I hate having to sell people all the time. I have always dreamt of betting on sports for a living. I had a couple questions that I hope you can answer, and if you can't just let me know. Thank you for all you do!
1) If I were to get on sports for a living this would be what I would do: I would pay for your picks and use them instead of trying to do it myself. I would bet 2% of my bankroll each bet (never straying from a fixed dollar amount no matter what!). When my bankroll increased by 50% I would reset the betting unit. Does this sound like a good way to do
2) if I were to bet on sports for a living, obviously it would need to provide me with income. What process do you guys use in terms of how often you take money out and the amount you take out? (I know you guys preach don't bet with the rent money. Does this mean betting on sports for you only income is not something you recommend?)
3) one of the articles talked about a guy who had 3 years pass in between peaks in his bankroll. How would that guy have paid the bills if it was his income? Did he just keep withdrawing money monthly and that's part of the reason it took so long in between peaks?
4) if I were to want to start handicapping myself, what resources should I use to get my information? Is this something that can be learnt or something that is more of a natural talent?
5) I would be happy doing anything in this field. How does one get started in this field? Who should I contact, what are the different kinds of jobs, etc.? Are there any opportunities or ways I could get my ears wet with you guys?
I know this is a lot at one time. Sorry about all the questions. I just want to make sure I understand everything before I did this. You guys are absolutely amazing and one whether I do this for a living or not you guys will get my business. There is no question about it. Thank you for all the great information and all of your honesty.” – Justin M., Churubusco, Ind.
Justin, First, I would encourage you to approach this like any other business. Your questions seem to focus on ‘making a living betting on sports.’ Most full-time professional-level sports bettors have been doing this awhile. You crawl before you walk.
I am intrigued that your current occupation is a financial advisor at Edward Jones. Investing in sports betting is much like investing in the stock market. Some sports bettors, like stock market investors, earn 100% of their living betting on sports/investing. Others supplement their income. Some sports bettors, like investors, seek out professional advice to contribute to their success, while others do it themselves. Answers to your questions:
Question #1: You have all the principles exactly right. These are the guidelines that work. However, it doesn’t mean it works for everyone. Almost all beginners fluctuate eventually because they think they’re ‘smarter’ or ‘luckier.’ Before investing in sports handicapping, one must objectively ascertain whether he/she is capable of 100% discipline. Do you invest in the stock market? If so, to what degree of success have you had? Have you been able to make a living? If not, why?
Question #2: Approach this like any other business. While in the building stage of growing a business, the principals often make little to no money. Typically profits are re-invested into the business for a period of time until there is enough revenue to begin paying salaries. Your letter states ‘I know you guys preach don't bet with the rent money. Does this mean betting on sports for your only income is not something you recommend?” To clarify, we teach don’t pay rent with the bet money. And we recommend beginners keep a ‘day job’ until things are rolling along steadily. As for taking out money, when you reset your bet size is a good time to do this. You may decide to pay yourself 25% of the increase and apply 25% to your new bet size. Generally, the idea is not to grow your bankroll forever and ever. Once you have reached an acceptable level of income, you can pay yourself all the winnings, so long as your bankroll does not decrease more than 50%.
Question #3: The article is a story about Sonny Reizner, one of the most respected and famous sports bettors in Las Vegas. He tells of how he once lived through a 3-year losing streak. In the article it explains he lost his house and his daughter’s college fund. We include this article to emphasize the reality and risk of ‘losing streaks.’ Mathematically they’re unavoidable, but they’ll never wipe you out if you follow our system.
Question #4: This question is no different than when your investors ask about managing their portfolios on their own. Most financial advisors strongly discourage it. For me, it depends. Many of our subscribers are professional-level handicappers who use our service as another weapon in their arsenal. We have other subscribers who are not handicappers and invest using our picks ‘as is.’ And everything in between. In fact, we have quite a few who have been doing this for over a decade. Like the stock market, sports betting is a marathon not a sprint. I generally think it’s helpful for bettors to learn as much about handicapping as they wish. For beginners, my first advice is to read books by experts. A great starting point is the Gambler’s Book Club (gamblersbookclub.com) in Las Vegas. They have every book ever written about sports handicapping. Talk to Mary and tell her J.V. Miller sent you. The key is in doing your own objective research and learning to understand the outcome of sporting events. Remember, the sole requirement is to be able to out-predict the general betting public. Learning successful handicapping techniques is much like learning anything else…you must go to 'school.' (Check our Order Page for important and informative works by recognized experts.) Concerning 'how-to' books, be sure to read several different authors. The more you read, the better you'll be able to separate the legitimate pros from the phonies. The ‘father’ of all handicapping how-to books is indisputably Bob McCune. His books are must-reads for every sports handicapper. McCune’s books are available at Amazon, and we also sell them on our website at our Order Page. Before you bet with real money, handicap a few hundred games on paper and see how you do. Write down what you did right and wrong. Most professional sports handicappers utilize one or more sports services.
5. As for how to get started, short of moving to Vegas, what is outlined above are the first steps. This is a booming industry and there are plenty of opportunities out there. As far as opportunities we may have, who knows what the future holds.
“Hello J.V., I got your email at 3 this morning saying you suspected Beckham and Randle might play. Do you mind if I ask how you knew that?” –Scott M.
My email said they were playing – it did not say I suspected it. My phone rang when Beckham and Randle stepped off the bus in Philly. After a few hours of snooping, I got the confirmation I needed. I wouldn’t send out that kind of info unless I was sure. I want PGN to be a profitable resource for more reasons than just the winning picks.
“Holy cow, I am amazed. Odell Beckham wasn’t cleared to play again until 11:00 a.m. this morning, but I have an email from you at 2:13 a.m. divulging this situation. That’s fucking invaluable.” Tristan L.
Yeah it was a great bet. Too bad we didn’t win.
© All material protected by United States copyright laws. All rights reserved. Written permission must be secured from the publisher to use or reproduce any part of this material. "ProfessionalGambler.com" is a registered trademark of Flying M Group, Inc., 4780 W. Ann Rd., Suite 5, N. Las Vegas, NV 89031 • (702) 286-8695 • FlyingMGroup@aol.com • Flying M Group is a Nevada Corporation