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The Best Way to Gamble

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Something I Learned from Sonny Reizner  Las Vegas'  premier sportbook manager tells how the "house" can lay 75 to win 100! - By J. R. Miller

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Handicapping & Common Sense

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A Very Important Thing to Know

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A Crash Course In Vigorish

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EMAIL FROM GAMBLERS

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    .....I notice you never (bet on) women's sports.....Why is that, Mister JR Miller?.... Hmmmm?  - Jeannie W.
    Sorry, I think professional women athletes are an antidote to Viagra.   - J. R.

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     Today you predicted the Giants would get more hits than the Rockies. The Rockies got 18 hits and the Giants got 9 hits....How do you explain that???????????? - J.T.L.
    Trust me, we're wrong a lot. I sometimes look like a bigger screw-up than the guy who married Judge Judy.  - J. R.

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     Your newsletter and website sounds "for real". I have been handicapping NHL for several years using basic Statistical Analysis and minor situational events to add or take away from my original scores...I don't have the time anymore to do my comparisions...Could you please give some general insights into how you come up with (your) base statisic analysis of NHL Games? Scores, Shots accuracy comparision etc, road and home effects etc.   Thanks    - John M
     We use all the things you mention and more, - shots, shots-per-goal, shots allowed, shots-allowed-per-goal-allowed, injuries, travel effects, quality level of recent opponents, motivational factors and penalties are the most important factors. We attach values to the differences relative to the league as a whole. - J. R. Miller

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        I have always felt that 3 team parlays were the best bet for a professional gambler. A short explanation follows:
     Suppose a gambler can expect to hit 55% of his wagers. (very reasonable for a good professional). His odds of hitting a three team parlay are 0.55 x 0.55 x 0.55 = 0.166. His odds of missing are 1 - 0.166 = 0.834.
     The net money he can expect to win from his wagers at 3 team parlays (at a payoff of 6 to 1) is 6 x 0.166 - 0.834 = 0.166 or 16.6% of the money he wagers. The net money from 3 straight bets would be 10/11 x 0.55 - 0.45 = 0.05 or only 5% of all the money he wagers.  - Michael S.
    The odds involved with parlay betting are explained in detail in my book, How Professional Gamblers Beat the Pro Football Pointspread. In brief, here's where your conclusion (above) is wrong:
    Look at a 3-bet parlay paying 6-to-1 and risking $100 to win $600.... After winning the first bet you are then actually risking approximately $191 on the second bet. After all, you did win the first bet and that money is yours. You're simply "doubling up" your $191 to win approximately $174 on the 2nd bet, and after winning the 2nd bet you are risking approximately $366 on the 3rd bet to win approximately $334 for a RETURN of $700 ($600 profit, plus the $100 you originally risked). You actually risked $100 + $191 + $366 (all figures are approximate) or about $657 to win $600.
     That's slightly less than laying 660 to win 600...The cost of a 3-bet parlay paying 6-to-1 IS slightly less than 3 straight bets risking 11 to win ten. It's 4.35% vigorish compared to 4.55% vigorish, but that's not the best reason to use parlays. There are plenty of times when using parlays can be a big advantage to a bettor. That's why sportbooks don't go out of their way to advertise parlays!
    Read my book. If you don't want to buy it, it's available at your local library. - J. R. Miller

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JR- When I read your book I never thought it would really happen...here it is. Lost 14 in a row today, if you take away one 2h Nba totals bet that I "won", it would really be 19 in a row. Thanks for the advice on how to stay cool during such a run, your articles are great. It's weird, even when you know you'll be on the right side in the long run, it ain't easy to deal with an ol fashion rear end whuppin'. I guess I'm just responding to say thanks for letting me know that this will indeed happen and you deal with it and move on. Good preparation. JR, we owe you a lot.  - Dan
Dan:  Sorry to hear about your nightmare, but thank you for taking the time to write the above note. We, too, have stepped into the propellor lately, but not nearly so bad as 0-14. I think we've just had 7 out of 8 losing days (through 1/15/05). The hell of it is, having just had a losing streak does not mean things will immediately correct themselves. In your case, right here is where we separate the men from the boys, where we find out if you've "got what it takes." It takes real balls to get up and handicap and bet on the day's games after having just gone 0-14. Best wishes to you and good luck.  - J. R.

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     Can someone tell me if these (pick) services are legit? I'm talking specifically about 'experts' who have you pay for 'information' and then they give you picks. I paid money for a service and they gave me 4 winners and 2 losers. Now they are asking for a larger amount and that they have to get me 'approved' for future picks.
     What's really going on here? Other than winning 67%, I wonder if I'm that sucker in the movie 'Boiler Room' who gets teased into a large investment.
- Confused, Ryan
     The deal you describe has "Fraud" written all over it. In fact, it's been a common scam for many years. We constantly challenge anyone who sells picks to post something similar to our own Track Us page on the Internet. We post all our plays as soon as games begin. Or, why can't these gurus send you an email with their picks immediately after games begin? There can be only one reason why these fellows won't allow you to track their plays.
     Whatever you do, don't believe their claims of past results, even if they claim to be "monitored." Very often, monitoring services are working in ca-hoots with the pick services.
     Don't send them any more money.   - J. R. Miller

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      .....You picked carolina (+250) to beat detroit in game1 (of the NHL Championship series) but you passed game 2 . If carolina won game 1 (Carolina won, 3-2 in overtime) didnt their #'s get better??? Why did you pass game 2?....   - Jeremy
       I'm afraid there's more to handicapping pro hockey than just numbers; - a lot more. If it was all about numbers we might not have been on Carolina in the first place. In the second game we simply studied all the factors, including the stats, and concluded that neither team offered enough value. (Carolina lost that 2nd game, by the way, 3-1.)

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       Hello and How are you? I have watched you make money all winter on the NHL (Track Us Here) but never myself had a handicapping theory on the NHL. After watching the way you conduct your analisys I have created a system that I would like to test before next season and with no money obviously. However I do not know if game by game stats are available anywhere and was curious if you knew where I could get such a thing....Thank you in advance for your time.  - Chris
       Game-by-game NHL stats are available through www.usatoday.com, or through www.nhl.com.

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     ...You picked the Cubs and Pirates to go under 7 1/2 today and the Cubs won 9 to 8. You don't know shit.   - JL
       Yeah. It's those close ones that hurt the worst.

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     JR Miller,  You have just lost 5 out of the last 6 days. You are the world's worse pro handicapper! Who ever told you that you were an expert? How can you get out of bed every day? The only way to make money with you is to go the opposite way! I do that with the free plays. Keep up the bad work!  - EG
       Good idea....Keep betting against us... - J. R.

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     Mr. Miller what % of MLB games end in a margin of one run ? Im dying to know this.
       About 26% of all MLB games end with a margin of victory of precisely 1 run. - J. R.

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     J.r. The d-backs are -320 and you bet them and lost. Why does -100 show up on your track instead of -320??   Thanks Nick
      We risk the same on all plays. Most all pros do the same. If you are risking different amounts on different plays it is costing you money. It's what you risk that counts; not what you hope to win. In this particular case we risked '100' to win '31.25'. If we bet an underdog at +320, we'd still risk '100', but to win '320'. - J. R.

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     .....I have been tracking you since Xmas.....I knew you were just another crook and you were pulling something but I could not figure out how you were doing it.....OK, I owe you an apology. Thanks for rebuilding my faith in people.     - Dirk C. 
       Well, apology accepted. We can't write better ads than that............I think........

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      Jesus Christ! You wrote the script on last night's (Capitals at) Lightning game! Nice going! - Mike R.
     LOL...Thanks for noticing. The Capitals were favored, -115, but we didn't see it that way. Here's some of our analysis of that game, published in PG Newsletter:
     ".....According to our stats the Lightning should be favored by at least -150 in this game.....We're expecting Tampa Bay to get between 31 and 37 shots away while Washington gets only 21 through 27 shots away.....We think there is substantially more than a 50-50 chance of Tampa Bay winning this game outright, so laying a half-puck and getting odds of +125 appears to be a solid value. We'd likely take the Lightning minus a half-puck at +100 or better."
     Tampa Bay won, 3-2, getting 37 shots and allowing 27 shots.
     Now, if only we could do that every time.... - J. R.

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     Just ran across your web page. what a great site! learned soo much already. you guys truly explained every important factor about gambling, if you want to call it that i do prefer investing myself. wish i could of found this years ago....thanks..... -Tom
     Hey, thank you very much for taking the time and trouble to write the above note. That was a nice thing to do. Be sure to check our Resurce Page when you're ready. There are some great 'weapons' there.

Weapons available at our Order Page:

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