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In a nutshell:
"I've known several
bettors who swear by the Kelly Criterion... None of them make
their living gambling."
- J. R. Miller
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Check these other pages:
The Best Way to Gamble
Handicapping &
Common Sense
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A Very Important Thing
to Know
Order
Page
A Crash Course In
Vigorish
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Sports Betting Money Management
R.J. Miller sheds light on the business of sports betting!
Debunking the
Kelly criterion
If you think progressive betting schemes can win more than you deserve, buy a round-trip
ticket in advance
Test Your Sports
Betting IQ
Use these questions to check your "expert" friends
Key NFL
Pointspreads
Some pointspreads are much more important than
others
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Winning Percentages
Track Us HERE
Sample Newsletter
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Complimentary pick
The Social Impact of
Gambling
Great Gambling
Stories
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NBA = $$$$
Football is fun, but the money is in the NBA!
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EMAIL FROM GAMBLERS
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How confident do u feel about the upcoming baseball season? Baseball is one
thing I have never had a winning year in. I see that last year was a banner
year for you (according to your website). How confident are you that you
will show an overall profit in bases. I'm looking at my options for the
upcoming season...Im showing good results in hockey but I want to continue
wagering in bases this year. If you feel confident in the upcoming baseball
season, then I will consider signing on with you for baseball. Thanks -
Jim
We had 901 baseball bets
(excluding ties) and made about 50 units' profit.
I built
the baseball chart (below) to display the realities of the business.
Look at the chart.
Green bars show weekly won-lost figures. Red
squares show season-to-date progress.
If someone subscribed to our newsletter May 6, he couldn't be
happy by the middle of July. But if another fellow subscribed on April 8 he
might think we're God's Gift To Sports Bettors by May 5th. One guy may
suspect we're crooks, the other guy might think we're
geniuses.
We are not crooks, nor are we geniuses. (Okay, maybe geniuses.) While
it's true we
know
we will win over the long haul, we can have long periods of losing. In fact,
the chart proves we can't promise to make money every month, but it also
offers evidence that we
cannot be
beaten over the long haul. 901 observations show proof of an
advantage. - J. R.
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I
read your entire book (How
Professional Gamblers Beat the Pro Football Pointspread).
I thoroughly enjoyed it as I could not put it down. That chart for money
management alone (showing your total bankroll and what your bet amount
should be off of that) is worth 10x the cost of the book in itself....
...Given the above, what should be my next book to read? I can't wait.
Thank you again. I am sure you have enlightened many many people to this
industry. It is a good thing....Vinny LG - Thanks again!
Thanks for the endorsement. Concerning your
question about what should be your next book to read, I can certainly
recommend anything written by Bob McCune. I think Bob's new edition of the
book,
Education of a Sports Bettor,
is probably his best, and I believe it is 'must' reading for any serious
player.
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In
reference to baseball, do you know the % of times that the favorite beats
the underdog on any given day? Thanks, - CW
The problem with your question is
that sometimes an early-morning favorite can become the underdog by gametime
as the lines move to reflect the betting trends. Also a favorite at one
bookmaker can be an underdog at another bookmaker at various times
throughout the pre-game hours. Generally speaking, home teams win about
53%-54% of the time, and they are favored 53%-54% of the time. Also,
generally speaking, the bigger the favorite, the bigger the percentage of
times they win.
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I am
forty seven years old. I have been gambling since 16. You preach everything
i have learned over the past thirty years. Your site is fantastic. I wish
you nothing but the best! - Louie B.
Hey...Thanks for the note.
- J. R.
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I
admire your honest approach to the whole professional gambling business.
Thank you. I have been a full time sports bettor for nearly 10 years and you
have inspired me to stop being embarrassed about it. Now when people ask
what I do I just tell them I gamble on sports. If they have a problem with
that, too bad. - Brian Y.
Whoa-a-a!.....LOL.....Pick your targets
carefully. I don't think a big percentage of bankers want to hear that, nor
do potential mothers-in-law! - J. R.
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I
took your advice on money management almost a year ago and that's one of the
reasons I finally subcribed to your newsletter...You were right...Flat
betting is better... People should not try to handicap their own
handicapping...I am currently risking $300 per bet and I am now up over
$8,000...with the help of your newsletter. By my reckoning, you are the best
thing that ever happened to my sports betting career. - Alfred J.
I love it when a plan comes together...Thanks for the
note.
- J. R.
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A
special message for Mr. Miller: When I recently signed on for your
newsletter, I sort of remembered your name. I think years ago, my good
friend Robert bought your Football book for me (How
Professional Gamblers Beat the Pro Football Pointspread).
I credit to this day, you with educating me about the game of Football
wagering. Especially your center injury angle which I make money with each
season. I'm happy that I can get the benefits of your efforts on a regular
basis through your newsletter. Thanks for all of your help. - Steven B.
The Center on an NFL team does
not usually make headlines, but he's a key factor in the offense. All manner
of bad things can happen when the starting center is replaced. I'm glad you
picked up on that in our book. - J. R.
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JR,
this article
(in
Professional Gambler Newsletter, October 3rd)
is exactly why I trust and learn from you. I have learned much over the last
few years. Occasionally I will step outside the rules that you have taught
me about sports betting and it always comes back to bite me. It is
interesting that you write about ego and occasionally I will feel cocky and
I have learned that is the time I evaluate my decisions and take a step back
and check that I am within my frame of rules that I live by. Not betting
more than 2% of my bankroll even on a can't miss. Thanks JR. - Kevin in
California
What a nice letter to wake up to! Thanks for taking
the time to write. - J. R.
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How
come you don't do college sports? - Ronnie S.
I have ethical problems with it. My daughter
graduated from the University of Tennessee a few years ago, and while she
was a student I'd visit her. At that time, the athletes were housed in a
separate dorm - behind a 6-foot-high chain-link fence with barbed wire on
top. It was my understanding that they had their own recreation area, their
own cooks and kitchen and maids and maintenance men and gymnasium (2
gymnasiums) etc., etc., and according to my daughter the athletes were not
even allowed to mix with "real" students. (Some of the athletes had/have
criminal histories.) Many of the athletes were eventually given useless
diplomas even though they could barely read or write. Only a handful go on
to professional sports, by the way.
I have no answers, but the city of Knoxville and the University of
Tennessee gross about $10 million in a single weekend from a UT home game
while those poor young men have maybe $27 in their checking account.
Something stinks. I think the point-shaving stories and the briberies
we've heard about in college sports are the tip of a very large iceberg,
and I think the system is corruptive and disgusting. Meanwhile, there are
colleges (Vanderbilt?) trying to put together teams from genuine students.
Those schools have zero chance against these 'hired giants'.
Like I said, I have no solutions, but the NCAA has a very big problem. I
want no part of supporting the system. - J. R. Miller
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Hey, I have been betting on football for a while now. during the off season.
I was planning on learning how to do basketball or baseball. Where would be
the best place for me to start?
thanks for your help. - Clay
Start with the stats of the winningest team and the losingest
team in the league(s). Study and compare those two teams' stats and find
what "counts" to make the difference. For example, in the NFL, Average
Length of Punts means nothing to a handicapper. Total Rushing Yards is the
most important stat, then Yards Per Completion is the 2nd-most important
stat. "Play" at least 500 bets on paper - without using real money - and
carefully record your results. Write down why you think you won a game and
why you think you lost a game. Try to stay focused on the job at hand even
during bad losing streaks. - J. R.
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I just
started following your picks, and I was wondering how rare is the hot streak
you are currently on? - Steven
Pretty damned rare. We're going to do an
article about the strange results of this month. They are very unusual. We
started the month with a terrible losing streak - got down more than 12
units - and then zoomed back up over 26 units for a net of 13+ units for the
month as a whole....It's been another testament to keeping all your bets the
same size.
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Amazing call on the Clippers yesterday, The Clippers were +400 on the
moneyline, getting 9.5 points, that was my best dog bet ever, thanks to you.
What has been your best dog? Thank you and keep up the great work. -
Andrew
I remember years ago taking the Colts at +900 at the Bears and
the game wasn't even close. The Colts won, even though they were 13-point
underdogs....Jeez, I felt smart! (LOL) Hitting a long dog on the moneyline
once in awhile emphasizes the fact that what's important is profit; - not
necessarily winning percentages. Hitting the Clippers at +400 over the
Lakers makes up for losing a few bets....We could have lost the next 3 bets
and still made 1 unit profit. On the other hand, sooner or later I'll
recommend taking a big underdog and they'll get their ass handed to them,
and I'll look really stupid. (LOL) - J. R.
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