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"If you use a 'Star'
betting system you'd better like stars alright, because you're
going to be sleeping under them."
- Jack Painter
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Check these other pages:
The Best Way to Gamble
Something I Learned
from Sonny Reizner
Handicapping &
Common Sense
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A Very Important Thing
to Know
Order
Page
A Crash Course In
Vigorish
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/// Sample
newsletter
A very important
thing to know Much like investing in stocks, you can't expect to make money
every day at sports betting. Here's what you can expect.
Sports Betting Money Management
R.J. Miller sheds light on the business of sports betting!
Debunking the
Kelly criterion
If you think progressive betting schemes can win more than you deserve, buy a round-trip
ticket in advance
Test Your Sports
Betting IQ
Use these questions to check your "expert" friends
Key NFL
Pointspreads
Some pointspreads are much more important than
others
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///
A Crash Course In
Vigorish
...And it's NOT 4.55%
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Track Us Here
All picks posted WHEN GAMES
BEGIN! Watch us WIN, watch us LOSE in real time!
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EMAIL FROM GAMBLERS
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...(During
my 1-month subscription) Mr. Miller had 4 days of NO PLAYS. According to my
records, I should have 3 additional days remaining on my subscription. Thank
you in advance for your assistance. - Robert P.
LOL...And we thought we'd heard everything...We've added your
letter to our 'Gambling
Stories Page'.
During your one month subscription we published 221 plays. That's about 90
cents per play. We do not 'force' plays if we don't have them.
- J. R.
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I noticed that you are using -105 or -108 as odds instead of -110 on
your betting results. Can you tell me the reason? - Tom
We use actual lines from www.planetpinnacle.com and/or www.canbet.com, and those are the lines
they offer. There are several on-line sportbooks offering better odds
than -110, and we expect all on-line sportbooks to sooner or later
follow suite in order to compete. Unlike Las Vegas sportbooks, on-line books have very little overhead
expenses, and we expect on-line gambling to eventually dwarf Las Vegas
gambling. - J. R.
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I
have checked out your Web site recently and think that the articles and
information on it are great. Highly informative and well produced.....I
would like to follow your NBA picks most since it would seem that you
have a great deal of expertise in handicapping NBA games. Is there an
NBA package or are all the packages determined by time period? Also, do
you (or are you able) to speak about any goals on past records for units
won over the course of the NBA season? Also, any thought you have on the
upcoming season would be greatly appreciated.
Thank you and keep up the great work, - Eric
Over the long haul we expect a return
against NBA pointspreads, moneylines, and totals equivalent to winning
54%-58% against so-called '11-10' bets, wherein you must risk $110 to
win $100. (We often use moneylines with underdogs, which sometimes
reduces our actual winning percentage.) These projections are based on
our results since 1986.
Our newsletter is sold by the month, 6 months @ $899, 3 months @
$499, or 1 month for $199, and contains all our picks and analyses for
every sport. (NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, and occasionally NCAA, boxing, etc.)
We have no "step-up" prices, no "inner circle", "millionaire's club",
etc. You get it all. The cost works out to less than $1.00 per pick. You
can view a sample newsletter
(HERE).
Thank you for your interest. We hope you'll come aboard. You can
track us
(HERE).
We can't promise a profit every week, or even every month, but that's
the way to bet it. - J. R.
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...You
claim you made 50 units profit from baseball this year.....How much of
that was from totals only? How much from overs and how much from unders?.....F.
R.
Please check our article, What's
Your Record?.
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...I
would like to receive a more extensive track history of your advice (say
1500-2000 bets), so that I can perform some statistical analyses on them
and maybe get some hard evidence about the proposed 55-8% edge... after
that, I think I'll write some betting algorythms in Visual Basic and
make use of your (hopefully provided) data through an Excel sheet (see
the attached sheet as an example input sheet) to perform some
calculations. Maybe I can draw some interesting conclusions.
Another question that arises when looking at the free
track
record
supplied on your site, is how you calculate the winning ratios,
in other words, where (which bookmaker) did you place your bet to get
those winning ratios??? (I presume that you placed your bet at the best
paying bookmaker, but then: who is he ?).
I hope to get an answer from you soon.....With kind regards,
Yours truly, - I. A.
We use lines from www.pinnaclesports.com and/or
www.canbet.com, as shown on our
Track Us
page at the top of the green area just above our latest picks.
We do not "shop" for "better" lines, but we advise subscribers to
shop. We do not receive revenues from these or any other sportbooks.
As to our historic record, please check this article:
What's Your Record?
We simply don't have the time nor the inclination to input 1,500 - 2,000
picks into your Excel sheet. Good luck with your research.
///
.....Could you please give me a breakdown of your football record to
date -- underdogs, favorites, overs, unders, and if you used teasers at
all?..... - D. M.
(NOTE: See the last two letters - this makes 3 in a row, all within 35
minutes)
Please check our article,
"What's Your Record?"
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I am
wondering where you stand on hedging bets. For example, I have a 3 team
round robin going right now, with 2 winners final, and the third team (a
dog) winning at half. Do I bet the 2nd half line against my current
positions if it guarantees I cannot lose money? Also along the same
lines, I have a 3 team parley going with 2 winners in and the third game
yet to start, do I buy the bet back to insure I cannot lose? Just
wondering what a professional does in these situations. If you have any
insight, as well as the time to share, I will be much obliged. - John
W.
In the above scenarios if you 'hedge' in either
case you never really had a 3-team parlay in the first place, not
really......In other words, every bet must stand on its own. Suppose I
decide to take a flyer on a 10-team parlay off a parlay card....Am I
really taking a 10-teamer, or am I actually buying a 9-teamer? After
all, if 9 teams win and I hedge the 10th, did I ever really have a
10-teamer at all?
Try to think it through every time before you make the bet...Know
what you'll do in every case, then 'fix' it so you can avoid hedging.
Either decide beforehand to use 2-bangers or decide to tough it out and
not hedge the 3-bangers.
In short, if you don't intend to make the trip don't get on the
horse. Hedging is in almost all cases a bad idea. - J. R. Miller
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I'm
a econometrics student from the Netherlands (Erasmus University
Rotterdam) and I'am interested in sportsbetting from a scientific
perspective. Since your advice is meant for the US, I wonder what the
possibilities are for international people to bet at US bookmakers
through the Internet. Hope to hear from you soon. With kind regards, -
I. A.
Thank you for your interest in our website. I
have good news and bad news concerning betting on the
Internet.....First, the bad news: The United States has the most
constrictive laws on gambling of any place in the world outside of
Muslim countries. There are no sportbooks in the USA allowed to accept
bets over the Internet. In fact, three of our states (Tennessee, Utah
and Hawaii) are the only places in the "free" world that allow no
gambling whatsoever.
The good news is, you can still bet on American sports at sportbooks
almost anywhere else in the world, from Australia to England, the
Netherlands, Germany, Russia, Costa Rica, etc., etc. I would caution you
to use an Internet sportbook that is regulated by a trustworthy
government. There are a few we recommend on our website:
www.planetpinnacle.com, www.canbet.com, www.wsex.com are three to check.
(We receive no revenues from these or any other sportbooks.)
Best of luck to you. - J. R.
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Some
people say that NBA is the best way to make money gambling on sports.
What do you think is best? I came across your site, it has sooo much to
offer, I started reading at 1am and didn't finish til 5am. It is great,
I can't wait to start. - R.B
Thanks for the nice words. Concerning which
sport is the "best way to make money," it doesn't quite work the way
most people think....Against '11-10' picks we will pull the trigger
whenever we think we have at least a 55% chance of winning. Against
moneylines (baseball, most particularly) we tend to be underdog bettors
so our percentage of wins is usually less than 55% but our return on
investment is about the same as with '11-10' bets. Consequently, our
percentage of wins is about the same against all sports, and in that
light, no sport is 'easier' than another. However, one sport might be
considered 'easier to beat' than another if we have more bets-per-game
in that sport; - that is, we generally have more plays over 100 NBA
games than we do over, say, 100 NHL games. In that light, the NBA might
be considered 'easier to beat', - but we don't really win a higher
percentage against the NBA. The real advantage of betting the NBA over
the NFL comes in the sheer number of games played over an entire season;
- 5 times as many as the NFL. Gamblers have a saying about the NBA and
Major League Baseball:
"Every day is Sunday."
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Sometime back (in
Professional Gambler Newsletter)
you sent out an analysis of parlays where, if I remember correctly, you
showed how a 6-to-1 three-team parlay is a pretty good bet. I can't find
that analysis in my files and am engaged in a debate on this very
subject. Do you have a copy of that handy? If so, could you e-mail it to
me? If it's not readily available it is no big deal. Thanks. - Tom M.
Check our article,
Parlays & Profit,
on this website. Also, there is a detailed explanation of parlays in our
report, How to Profit from Parlays,
and our book,
How Professional Gamblers Beat The Pro Football Pointspread.
Three-bet parlays paying 6-to-1 have a vigorish charge of about 4.35%.
Straight bets risking 11 to win 10 have a vigorish charge of about 4.55%
- but that's not the reason to include parlays in your strategy. Not by
a long shot. Knowing how and when to use parlays is one of the most
valuable weapons we've got. That's why sportbooks don't go out of their
way to promote parlays, and why they often restrict their use. -
J. R. Miller
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I
respect your opinions highly. I know you are one of the few who are
honest and on the level. I have a question. If a handicapper or a
handicapping group has a record of, say, 3 or 4 or 5 consecutive seasons
of winning anywhere from 56 to 57 to 59 or 60 percent of their 11/10
straight-bet selections in basketball and football, is there much of a
chance that they could have done that by just being "lucky"? Thanks for
your input. - John J. J.
When the Gallop Polling people take a survey
they only ask about 1,000 people over a cross-section of the population.
They know that with 1,000 opinions their results will most likely be
within 3% of what the total population "thinks".
In other words, if a handicapper wins 580 out of 1,000
picks, you can be relatively sure he has a long term winning expectation
of between 55% and 61 percent, so long as the rules or other parameters
haven't changed. (If he wins 5800 out of 10,000 picks you can be
relatively sure he has a winning expectation of between 56.5% and 59.5
percent.) - J. R.
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