|
In a nutshell:
"There are a
lot of bookmakers in Nevada, but probably not as many as in
Cleveland."
- R. J. Miller
|
///
Check these other pages:
Handicapping &
Common Sense
///
///
Alan
Boston Calls it Quits
A Crash Course In
Vigorish
///
A Very Important
Thing To Know
Much like investing in stocks, you can't expect to make money
every day at sports betting. Here's what you can expect.
///
///
Sports Betting Money Management
R.J. Miller sheds light on the business of sports betting!
Debunking the
Kelly criterion
If you think progressive betting schemes can win more than you deserve, buy a round-trip
ticket in advance
///
///
Test Your Sports
Betting IQ
Use these questions to check your "expert" friends
Key NFL
Pointspreads
Some pointspreads are much more important than
others
A Crash Course In
Vigorish
...And it's NOT 4.55%
///
///
///
|
NFL Stats
3,000 games! 12 full years! Build your
own winning formulas!
|
|
EMAIL FROM GAMBLERS
///
I
stumbled across your web site while searching for something else but I noted
that you are not an orthodox tout and that you do not take ads or click
throughs from bookmakers. I applaud that but thought it might be of interest
to your subscribers to know that there is now a reputable bookmaker out in
cyberspace betting 107 instead of 110 on nfl games. To adopt your policy of
honesty I should declare that the bookmaker is the public company, listed on
the Australian Stock Exchange, of which I am chairman. You can see for
yourself at
Canbet.com.au.
Best wishes.....
Richard Farmer, Chairman, Canbet Limited
Canbet.com.au
(Name and
address used with permission)
We're way ahead of you. If you'll scroll down
our
Home Page
you'll find we recommend only three sportbooks in the world so far ,
including Canbet.
(We
receive no revenues from any sportbooks.) -
J. R. Miller
///
|
.I have taken your system described in Chapter 2
(How
Professional Gamblers Beat The Pro Football Pointspread)
using the worksheets and set it up using an Excel spreadsheet. Talk
about a time saver. All I have to do is enter the teams (all (teams)
have a separate sheet) weekly opponents and the scores from each
weeks games and it plugs in any and all values that need to be
calculated, even the adjusted scores, pointspread and totals. It
will also plug in the calculated value for their offense |
 |
and
defense on the next week's opponent's worksheet. I love it. thanx
again -D.W.
Thanks for taking the time to write. Good
luck! |
///
We
run a small sports service, and are considering going with Bigguy.com to
monitor our picks. However, after a 3 hour telephone conversation with Dave
at Bigguy, we seemed a little hesitant about their operation - we weren't
sure what it was, just a gut reaction.
On your web site, you have a few statements about resigning from Bigguy
some years back. Did you resign simply because of a disagreement over their
line policy, or did you find them to be less than a reputable outfit?
As you know, it's really hard to find a good monitoring service out
there that can be trusted. I'd sure appreciate a couple comments about your
Bigguy experience. Thanks for your time.
Sincerely, Roy S.
I have no hard evidence that they are dishonest, and I don't think they
are, but they're just not professional-level sports bettors. They don't
understand how it "works." For one example, they put as much (or more)
importance on winning percentage as they do on profit. That makes no sense
unless all contestants are required to bet the same number of games. If you
go 60-40 (60%) risking 110 to win 100 and make 16 units' profit and I go
31-19 (62%) and make only 10.1 units' profit, why aren't you declared the
winner?
Another problem we had with them is that against moneyline plays
(baseball) you are not allowed to risk the same amount per play, which is
the only correct way to do it. You can risk $100 on all underdogs, but you
must lay, for example, $150 on a favorite that is -150. (The correct play is
to risk the same amount on favorites as on underdogs, in this case $100, so
that a -150 favorite would return $67 profit.)
But the biggest problem of all was, they decided what the line should
have been AFTER the game was over...That really stinks to high heaven. We
had nearly one play per week "switched" from a winner to a loser before we
quit them - and we had zero plays "switched" from a loser to a
winner.........And when we walked away from the contest we were STILL in
first place.
///
Your
website is fantastic. Where I come from Otis Taylor and Len Dawson were the
idols of my now grown contemperaries. Lem Banker has always been mine , my
friends never had a clue, of course. I learned my blackjack skills from
Lawrence Revere and had a decent run until recent rules and restrictions
have made things difficult. Anyhow I am in the midst of a major reform due
to my idiotic money management habits over the last several years (just bad
enough to keep me a little confused and my income short more times than
not). I was planning to subscribe last week until this horrible catastrophe
happened to this great country of ours...
My main question is: Is it 1% or 2% of bankroll? As I am trying to do
this thing right, the more I read on your site, the more I get confused. Is
risking 2% acceptable by your standards or is it pushing the envelope. If
you say 1% so be it. I am in this for the long run. Gambling has provided me
a living for many years now.
I come to find out that it could have been a lot better if I would have
had better money management skills. I never dreamed that by taking the time
to figure it out mathematically that the results would show what they do. I
have to congratulate you, nice work. I would like to have the knowledge that
(you) have probably already forgotten along the way, no doubt I would be a
wealthy man now. Anyhow the above percentage difference is my dilemma.
Thanks a lot, respectfully yours, Scott D.
Two percent is okay for recreational players with another source of
income, but most full-timers use no more than one percent. If my memory is
correct, at 2 percent with a 55%-58% expectation-per-bet against '11-10'
bets you can expect to go (virtually) broke about every 18,000 - 20,000-or-
so bets, but it's been a long time since I looked into it.
If gambling is your only income, that just won't do. At one percent
with a 55%-58% expectation-per-bet, the chances of going broke are
negligible - essentially non-existent.
I have to tell you that it is difficult recommending even as low as 2%
to beginners and non-pros because the average recreational gambler simply
doesn't believe it....He wants to risk more than twice that much per bet.
Most touts (bullshit artists) recommend 5%, 10%, even more on your
"favorite" plays, and that's a one-way ticket to Tap City.
Thanks for all the nice words about our website.
We're looking forward to having you aboard. - J. R.
///
JR, I
have five offshore accounts and bet on sports year-round without any
problems. Yet, like clockwork, during the the start of the college football
season each year the internet is bogged down and the betting phone lines are
busy. It is amazing to me how much of the total betting action consists of
football. There are literally thousands of casino sign-up specials this time
of year (unlike NHL or NBA) and sports radio talk shows overwhelmed with
callers voicing their opinion about the pointspread. What's more amazing is
that you can't convince a football bettor that he will not crush the house.
They are a unique lot and this is a unique time of year..... Best - Calvin
F.
I don't remember where I heard it or saw it, but I remember it was from a
'reliable' source that about 40% of all monies risked on sports is risked on
football, college and pro. It would make an interesting study for clinical
psychologists. I suspect it has something to do with the "war" aspect of the
game as it concerns our "macho" instinct.......In what might be a related
matter, less than 1 in 100 of our customers are women, and I suspect even
some of them bought our products for their husband or boyfriend. Really,
less than one percent; - that's not an exaggeration. Moreover, if you've
been to a lot of sportsbooks in Las Vegas I wonder if you've noticed the
lack of black men. It's safe to say that fewer than 1 in 50 of the bettors I
have seen in sportsbooks are black. What is that all about?- J. R.
///
I
know you receive a ton of e-mails so I'll keep it brief. Your site is easily
the most informative site on sports betting I have ever seen. Thank you very
much for maintaining it. I plan on buying your
How Professional Gamblers Beat the Pro Football Pointspread
book from The Gambler's Book Shop (Las Vegas) this week. Thank you very
much. - Jim
Hey, Jim, thanks for taking the time to write the
above note. Good luck to you.
///
Do the
ridiculous tough losses ever begin to even out? Every year I lose games in a
manner which I never win them. - anonymous
LOL....We KNOW what you mean!......But it's an
illusion. I think everyone tends to remember the tough losses but forget the
'miracle' wins. I'm sure they figure to even out over the long haul. Sooner
or later you'll get a miracle win that you'll never forget. I still remember
a 3-bet parlay I had which included the old New Jersey Generals in the
United States Football League. The first 2 bets of the parlay had already
won, but the Generals were hopelessly behind by 4 points with 2 seconds left
on the clock....Doug Flutie was their quarterback, and he threw a Hail Mary
Pass and it actually worked. I won the 3-banger....(I went over backward in
my chair.) - J. R. Miller
///
I have
to hand it to you. You've got balls, posting your picks as soon as games go
off
(on your
Track Us Here
page)...I
like that. - George J.
We figured it was the best way for people to track
us and know for sure they are seeing reality. We don't trust monitoring
services; they tend to have incestuous relationships with sports touts.
We've had bad experiences with a couple of monitoring services. Beware of
them. Besides, why don't all sports services post there picks as soon as
games begin?
///
I had
to write and thank you for your website. You have converted me from reckless
weekend warrior gambler into a professional-in-progress gambler. I'm not
going to quit my day job any time soon.
I started with my regular routine of buying all the NFL magazines on
the rack and started reading evaluations on all the teams. I have so many, I
can't remember which one had your site listed.
A few days ago I was going to do (a) star system. I think your Flat
system is the most intelligent thing I've seen. I really like the way you
track all your picks. I think all the other guys are advertising to people
that think they can double their wealth with one game because of the
percentages they claim. I like your site because you seem to advertise to
the average, level headed gambler that doesn't want to lose his house
because some guy's "Game of the Year" was off this season.
I only bet during NFL season and really low during the preseason. I'm
off to a good start by picking the UNDER bet on the first 4 preseason
games. - Russ M.
///
Mr.
Miller: Just stumbled upon your site. Very interesting, and informative.
At last, a site that uses a common sense non BS approach to Sports Betting.
Two things I wanted to comment on. Thank God someone has the guts to tell
people what garbage the Kelly System is! Even if one had the foresight to
discern exactly what their winning percentage would be before a wagering
season began, the end results would still be based upon the order that the
number of wins and losses occurs. As you said, just work it out on paper.
Believe me, there is quite a difference! Secondly, I could never understand
the logic behind 1*, 2*, 3* or more wagers on a contests where the odds are
exactly the same for each contest - using football as an example, 50 - 50,
regardless of the pointspread. Even if one feels more strongly about one
game over another, it still doesn't alter the fact that the odds are still
the same. A flat bet for each contest is the only logical approach. -
Denver K.
Hey! Thanks for taking the time to write. You would be amazed at the
number of emails we get "proving" (supposedly) that progressive betting
schemes will return more profit than you deserve. Of course, all progressive
betting systems are simply variations of the Mother of Them All, the
Martingale System, which "guarantees" you will win if you simply double your
bet after every loss until you finally win a bet. You can "water it down" to
make it less suicidal, and the more you water it down the less it will cost
you and the safer it is.....Until you water it all the way down to flat
betting. When you have the edge (which we do) it is better to apply that
edge as often as possible, risking the same amount on each play.
Most experts agree that when the odds are against you (craps, roulette,
etc.) it is a good idea to vary the size of your bet over the short term
using some sort of progressive betting plan.....But then why would it also
be a good idea when the odds are in your favor? - J. R.
///
Emails from Gamblers pages
01 02
03 04
05 06
07
08
09 10
11
12 13
14 15
16 17
|
