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NFL Handicapping at its BEST. Better than the rest.

NFL: BEST BANG FOR YOUR BUCK

NFL: BET WITH CONFIDENCE AND CONVICTION

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All sports have techniques to maximize profit. The NFL unquestionably fits this description. Our handicapping advice is time-tested and sound.

What does this mean for the NFL gambler? It means the line-maker must take public opinion about the NFL into account more than any other sport.

Public opinion can be predictable. For one thing, the public tends to lean to favorites and overs. That results in posted lines that are - generally speaking - 'tilted' against favorites and against overs. Ask most any successful sports bettor and he will tell you that he bets more underdogs than favorites and more unders than overs. Underdogs and unders can be regarded as being a 'positive universe' because over time underdogs always cover more than 50% of the time and unders always beat overs more than 50% of the time.

Like all sports, we research our NFL database to try to isolate what we call “positive universes”. When we identify a bias, we try to look within it to find logical areas that can be eliminated from the group, thereby intensifying the bias. If we can subtract niches that are 50/50 or less, the winning percentage of the remaining universe increases, and often increases dramatically.

Like each sport, and for varying reasons, the NFL betting season changes as the season progresses. To demonstrate the thought process, we’ll use an example of over/under statistics...

In recent years, NFL games that went over the line has been 48.59%. That is a small bias of 51.41% under. But if you break it down by month, you find an interesting fact:

         Month       under
         September   52.60 %
         October     53.09 %
         November    52.40 %
         December    47.99 %

The December aberration is caused by the public wanting to bet ‘unders’ in December because they think the weather will cause lower scores. The linemaker takes this into account.

Thus, by taking out December, the number of games in our sample that went under during September, October and November is 1450 vs. 1298 that went over...52.77 % went under.

You would also quantify games by the line itself. In all September games, if the over/under line was greater than 40, the results were 226 overs and 296 unders, or 56.7% under. If the line was less than 40, the result was 170 overs and 165 unders, or 49.2% under. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand that logic. And if we apply our projected scores to the data, we can further enhance the outcome. If the projected score is less than the line and the line is greater than 40, the outcome is now 102 overs and 156 unders, or 60.5% under. If our line is over the line and the line is greater than 40, the outcome is 113 overs and 123 unders, or 52.1% under. So we take out the under bets when our line is not leaning to the under...And we learn that our line has some validity, but it still should be used within the ‘positive universe’.

We also, as in all sports, rate the field itself for game and total values. The median field has a ‘4’ value for over/unders. In the example above, the results were 102 overs and 156 unders, or 60.5% under. If we ask our data for the outcomes if the field had a rating of greater than 4, the result is 31 overs and 35 unders, or 53.03 % under. By pulling that niche out of our ‘command’, we now have an outcome of 71 overs and 121 unders, or 63.0% under!

So now the ‘Command’ statement for this category would read, “In September, with an over/under line of greater than 40, a projected total of less than the line, and a field rating of less than 5, what were the results?"

           MONTH         O\U LINE     PROJ TOTAL   FIELD+
           Sept          >40             <0         <5

          W\SPREAD      L\SPREAD        OVER       UNDER
            97            95             71         121
             50.5%         49.5%          37.0%       63.0%

So while the ‘command’ held no relevance for the side bet, it did for the total.

Always keep in mind that the criteria must be logical, but while each sport has its own advantages and quirks, the method of research is the same. Find a large ‘positive universe’ and then ask relevant questions to try to eliminate low value categories within that field.

Related articles:
How to Spot Key NFL Pointspreads
How To Beat NFL Preseason Games