The WORLD’S FIRST Sports Handicapping Website.
Use our picks as is or compare them to your own forecasts. Click HERE for Home Page & Index
J. R. Miller
This is a SECURE site. Use your credit card with confidence at our ORDER Page. We do not tele-market, nor do we sell, trade, rent or otherwise reveal customers' identities to anyone. You don’t have to “log in” and there's nothing to join. DISCLAIMER: This material is intended for novelty and entertainment purposes only and not to be construed as real financial advice or an inducement to gamble. You must be 21 years of age to use this site. Information contained at this site is for news, entertainment & amusement purposes only. Any use of this information in violation of any federal, state and or local laws is prohibited. If you think you have a gambling problem click HERE to visit the Gamblers Anonymous website. ©All material on this site is protected by United States copyright laws. All rights reserved. Written permission must be secured from the publisher to use or reproduce any part of this material. "ProfessionalGambler.com" is a registered trademark of Flying M Group, which is owned by J.V. Miller, Readyville, TN 37149. Parkinson’s Drugs Encourage Gambling.
BEST BANG FOR YOUR BUCK
Maximizing profit betting NFL
The linemaker must take public opinion about NFL into account more than any other sport because more bets are placed on NFL. Public opinion can be predictable. For one thing, the public tends to lean to favorites and overs. That results in posted lines that are - generally speaking - 'tilted' against favorites and against overs. Ask most any successful sports bettor and he will tell you that he bets more underdogs than favorites and more unders than overs. Underdogs and unders can be regarded as being a 'positive universe' because over time, underdogs always cover more than 50% of the time and unders always beat overs more than 50% of the time.
When we identify a bias, we try to look within it to find logical areas that can be eliminated from the group, thereby intensifying the bias. If we can subtract niches that are 50/50 or less, the winning percentage of the remaining universe increases, and often increases dramatically.
Like each sport, and for varying reasons, the NFL betting season changes as the season progresses. To demonstrate the thought process, we’ll use an example of over/under statistics...
In recent years, NFL games that went over the line has been 48.59%. That is a small bias of 51.41% under. But if you break it down by month, you find an interesting fact:
The December aberration is caused by the public wanting to bet ‘unders’ in December because they think the weather will cause lower scores. The linemaker takes this into account.
Thus, by taking out December, the number of games in our sample that went under during September, October and November is 1450 vs. 1298 that went over...52.77 % went under.
You would also quantify games by the line itself. In all September games, if the over/under line was greater than 40, the results were 226 overs and 296 unders, or 56.7% under. If the line was less than 40, the result was 170 overs and 165 unders, or 49.2% under. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand that logic. And if we apply our projected scores to the data, we can further enhance the outcome. If the projected score is less than the line and the line is greater than 40, the outcome is now 102 overs and 156 unders, or 60.5% under. If our line is over the line and the line is greater than 40, the outcome is 113 overs and 123 unders, or 52.1% under. So we take out the under bets when our line is not leaning to the under...And we learn that our line has some validity, but it still should be used within the ‘positive universe’.
The median field has a ‘4’ value for over/unders. In the example above, the results were 102 overs and 156 unders, or 60.5% under. If we ask our data for the outcomes if the field had a rating of greater than 4, the result is 31 overs and 35 unders, or 53.03 % under. By pulling that niche out of our ‘command’, we now have an outcome of 71 overs and 121 unders, or 63.0% under!
So now the ‘Command’ statement for this category would read, “In September, with an over/under line of greater than 40, a projected total of less than the line, and a field rating of less than 5, what were the results?"
O\U LINE PROJ TOTAL FIELD+
So while the ‘command’ held no relevance for the side bet, it did for the total.
Always keep in mind that the criteria must be logical, but while each sport has its own advantages and quirks, the method of research is the same. Find a large ‘positive universe’ and then ask relevant questions to try to eliminate low value categories within that field.