Sports: Sucker Punched by a Sucker Bet
is no way you can be a professional fantasy sports player.
We've got good
news and bad news...
bad news...Even though fantasy sports can be great fun, you can't expect to
win over an extended period of time. Like craps, video poker, roulette,
slots, keno, etc., fantasy sports must be regarded as being strictly
entertainment. The reason is, of course, that the odds are always tilted
against the player - sometimes only very slightly and sometimes not so
slightly. The house enjoys a mathematical advantage in those games on
virtually every bet, so players are bound to ultimately lose. Mathematical
laws of the universe simply cannot be violated for an extended length of
Yes, I know
there are people who have won a fortune playing fantasy sports. Those
people make headlines. They come from places like Iowa, risk $25, and hit
the main jackpot. But a reality check quickly confirms that as a percentage
of the whole, only a tiny number of players ever so
much as break even.
Let's be doubly
clear on that. In spite of what you've probably seen on TV commercials, and
in spite of what you may have read in a
how-to-get-rich-quick-playing-fantasy-sports website, there is no such
thing as a professional fantasy sports player. If you have a sure-fire
winning system for fantasy sports, don’t quit your day job. It doesn't matter how well a player
understands the game, over any appreciable period of time nothing will
overcome those negative expectations. Trick money management won't work,
wearing your lucky underwear won't work, - nothing will work. The only way
to win at fantasy sports over the long term is to either own the company or
cheat – or both.
we are not saying you should never play fantasy sports. Of course you can. Those games are
great fun, and are certainly more entertaining than an evening watching The
Big Bang Theory. We are only pointing out that you can't realistically
expect a long-term profit from playing.
for the good news: There are ways to gamble - even in many casinos - which
do offer beatable propositions. One is poker, and another is - sometimes -
blackjack, and another is sports betting. The reason that poker, blackjack
and sports betting can be beaten is, those games are not mathematically
fixed. Their outcome is arbitrary.
Oh, no, none
of those are easy to beat, and none of them offer overnight wealth. We're
not saying that. It's not easy to regularly come out of a casino with a profit...but
it's possible. Against poker, for example, all you have to do is beat the
other guys at the table. The casino's profit from poker comes from renting
the chairs. If you're better at poker than the other players, you figure to
win. And against blackjack the trick is to know which cards remain in the
deck and their relevance to the odds concerning whether you'll win the next
alright, - but not impossible.
best news concerns sports betting. It is almost self-evident that an expert
sports handicapper can make a long term profit. The key factor is that when
you bet on sports you're not going head-to-head against the experts. Make
no mistake about it, you can't beat the experts. Instead, when you bet on a
pro sports event you are pitting your judgment against the opinion of the
general betting public. More precisely, you are pitting your judgment
against your bookmaker's other customers.
can beat those guys. That's the critical difference that makes sports
betting a beatable proposition. A bookmaker's posted lines are not intended
to be predictions. The purpose of pointspreads is to make sure the
bookmaker gets enough action on both sides of a bet. If public opinion is
not reasonably balanced, a disproportionate amount of money would be
wagered on one side of a game. That would force the bookmaker to gamble,
and bookmakers are not in business to gamble. The bookmaker's role,
strictly speaking, is to act as a broker, much like a stock broker or a
Realtor. His job is to 'hold the money,' and to charge a fee for that
service. He adjusts the lines in order to get an acceptable amount of money
risked on both sides of a proposition. (Not an 'equal' amount of money, by
the way, as you've probably heard, but simply an 'acceptable' amount of
money; - bookmakers rarely get an 'equal' amount risked on both sides. They
actually DO 'gamble' in a sense, but that's a subject for a different
Fantasy Players are
How to Spot Winning
Distribution & You
Consequently, if you can outwit public opinion more than 53 times
out of 100 - (or, to be more specific, if you can outwit your bookmaker's
other customers more than 53 times out of 100) - you figure to be a winner
over the long haul.
unlike blackjack wherein an expert player takes the casino's money, big
sports books actually have no real incentive to care who wins or loses on a
racing and dog racing. Those are not the same as sports betting. The
gigantic vigorish charges are simply suicidal. The 'drag' from horse and
dog racing is typically higher than 15-20 percent. That's why race tracks
are going broke throughout the country; - bettors are getting too
sophisticated to stand for a 15% "tax." You'd actually be facing
better odds playing the wheel-of-fortune. When was the last time you met a
rich horse player, anyway?
In ‘real’ – versus fantasy – sports
betting, the house can be put at a decided disadvantage. No sports book can
have all the information when posting a number, and that's when the house
is at risk. The player has a
big advantage: he can pass. The player doesn't have to bet on every proposition.
The house can't pass.
The key is
in doing your own objective research and learning to understand the outcome
of sporting events. Remember, the sole requirement is to be able to out-predict
the general betting public. Learning successful handicapping techniques is
much like learning anything else - you must go to 'school.' Study what
experts have to say. Read books by proven experts. Both 'how-to' books and
books with plenty of past team stats are available from any gambling
bookstore. (Check our Order
Page for important and informative works by recognized
'how-to' books, be sure to read several different authors. The more you
read, the better you'll be able to separate the legitimate pros from the
phonies. Be especially wary of authors touting progressive betting schemes.
Progressive betting systems are for suckers. They're a sure sign of a non-professional.
Also, avoid authors who claim they can pick an outrageous percentage of
In any case,
if you're considering gambling as a profession, real sports betting is
without a doubt the best way to go. Stay objective; don't be swayed by
emotion. If you consistently bet on a team because you're a fan of that
team, or if you like to bet against a coach because you don't like the way
he combs his hair, you're not likely to win over the long haul. Concentrate first on those sports
which interest you most. Look for fundamental differences between perennial
winners and perennial losers. Just remember, you can't help losing bets,
but you can usually avoid betting on the wrong team.