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ProfessionalGambler.com

Sports betting as a business.


 





 


In a nutshell:

"Gambling is not as destructive as war or as boring as pornography. It is not as immoral as business or as suicidal as watching television...And the percentages are better than religion."
- Mario Puzo
 

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Parlays & Profit
If parlays are bad for bettors, why don't sportbooks promote
them???
 

 

 

A very important thing to know 

Much like investing in stocks, you can't expect to make money every day at sports betting. Here's what you can expect.

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Debunking the Kelly criterion  
If you think progressive betting schemes can win more than you deserve, buy a round-trip ticket in advance

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How To Spot NFL 'Positive Universes'
 
R. J. Miller tells how to find winning NFL situations

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A Crash Course In
Vigorish

...And it's NOT 4.55%

 

Winning Percentages

 

Track Us HERE

 

Sample Newsletter

 

Who the hell is J. R. Miller?

 

Great Gambling Stories

A Crash Course In Vigorish

 

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Bob McCune on Baseball Betting
 
An important article by Bob McCune, adapted from his classic book, Revelations In Sports Betting!
 

 

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Sports Betting Money Management 
R.J. Miller sheds light on the business of sports betting!

 

Test Your Sports
Betting IQ

Use these questions to check your "expert" friends

 

Key NFL Pointspreads
Some pointspreads are much more important than others

 

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Successful Professional Gamblers
Famous pros talk about their lives & how they win!
 

 

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SPORTS BETTING AS A BUSINESS

 

There's more to sports betting than calling winners

 


I do not consider myself a gambler and I am not a big sports fan. I’d rather be playing sports than watching someone else play. When it comes to sports betting I am simply an investor.

I learned early in life that (i) the superior team usually wins the game and (ii) the linemaker is very good at setting the number. These are key to becoming involved in this business, and it is proof that the outcomes of games, as a whole, are not random. Unlike craps or roulette or slot machines or other casino games, the odds with sports betting are arbitrary. I also learned that the linemaker is not predicting which team will win (and by how much); rather, he is actually predicting which team the general public thinks will win, and by how much. The linemaker's job is not to predict the final score of a game, but to make sure there is an acceptable amount of action on both sides of the bet…to split public opinion.

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In essence, I, as a handicapper, and the linemaker are trying to do two different things. Because of his limitations concerning public opinion and some other handicaps, it opens up positive opportunities for me as a player. This is what I have been able to study.

Virtually all sports handicappers utilize static systems that compute the same things in the same way, over and over.  These systems rarely get fine-tuned. This limits accuracy and creates ‘winning percentage ceilings.’ To break through, calculations must be based on continuously changing data.

This is precisely what we have developed and what we continue to work and improve on.  We have proprietary computer systems that react and adapt in real time to new statistics as they are generated. Our programs maximize winning percentage by continuously correcting, adjusting and modifying to resemble the fluid nature of the most current database universe. Forecasting sports outcomes is a never-ending, fluid process.

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    " … (our) models maximize winning percentage by continuously correcting, adjusting and modifying to resemble the fluid nature of the most current database universe. ."

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As new statistics embed into the code, the schedules for tomorrow’s games are being scrutinized for significant data. No team or player makes a good bet. Only lines makes good bets.  We manually check the injury list and the rumor mill for any significance and then we shop for lines.

 

Because sports betting is different from other forms of gambling, you can gain and keep an advantage. In sports betting, large bookmakers merely act as brokers; they have no vested interest in the outcome of the game. My 'opponent' is not the bookmaker but the player betting on the other side. I realized years ago that if I handicapped full time for decades and he spent 10 minutes reading the morning sports page, I would have an undeniable edge.

 

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In Las Vegas, they’re known as grinders. Many grinders have over 2,000 plays a year on all sports. They play, simply put, 1.1% of their bankroll on each play to win 1 percent; that is, 1.1 'units' to win 2 units. If they win 55% of our plays, they win 110 units (after vigorish). 1,100 wins minus 900 losses minus 90 vigorish. 110 units @ 1% = 110% profit per year - before compounding. That’s a good return on investment. 110% return on investment is possible because at 2.2% - bet 2,000 times they are able to invest 2,200% of our original bankroll; - the same money 20 times in a year. The return is actually better with the compounding effect.

 

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‘Seize the moment.’ If you've got $50,000 (or $5,000)…(or $5 Million) you want to double over the next few months, get our Newsletter. 

 

Thanks and good luck.   -- J.V. Miller

 

Related articles:

How to Spot Winning Bettors

A Good Handicapper...Broke

Binomial Distribution & You

 

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