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ProfessionalGambler.com Sports betting as a business.

 

 




 


 

 

 

 

 


In a nutshell:

"It's bad luck to be superstitious."
- Anonymous
 

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Check these articles:

A Crash Course In Vigorish - And It's Not 4.55%

Top 10 Ways To Lose Against Sports

Winning Percentages

The Best Way To Gamble

Great Gambling Stories

Something I Learned From Sonny Reizner

Handicapping...
Begin With Common Sense

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Check this book!

How Professional Gamblers Beat the Pro Football Pointspread!
Now in paperback!
 

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Professional Gambler Newsletter
Get our picks every day by email! This is a great way to make money from each other!
 

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Check this article:

Bob McCune on Baseball Betting
 
An important article by Bob McCune, adapted from his classic book, Revelations In Sports Betting!
 

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Test Your Sports Betting I.Q.

How Much Do You Know About Sports Betting?

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      There are very profound differences between average sports bettors and genuine winners. Here are ten questions that less than 1 in 100 sports bettors will answer correctly. Try this test on your know-it-all friend...If he doesn't score well on this quiz he is NOT really a successful gambler.

1. When laying 11 to win 10, approximately how much vigorish is paid by losing bettors:
A: 4.5%
B: 5%
C: 10%
D: None of the above

2. Against money lines, bookmakers make...
A. ...slightly more when a favorite wins
B. ...slightly more when an underdog wins
C. ...the same, whether the favorite or the underdog wins
D. ...None of the above

3. A 3-bet parlay paying 6-to-1 has vigorish costs...
A. ...much higher than 3 individual bets risking 11 to win ten.
B. ...much lower than 3 individual bets risking 11 to win ten.
C. ...slightly higher than 3 individual bets risking 11 to win ten.
D. ...slightly lower than 3 individual bets risking 11 to win ten.

4. Professional-level sports bettors expect to win...
A. ...70%-75% of their bets.
B. ...65%-70% of their bets.
C. ...60%-65% of their bets.
D. ...55%-60% of their bets.

5. On any single bet, professional-level sports bettors rarely risk more than...
A. ...15% of their bankroll.
B. ...10% of their bankroll.
C. ...5% of their bankroll.
D. ...None of the above.

6. When laying 12 to win 10, ("Six-to-five"), winnings are shorted by approximately...
A. ...6.5%
B. ...8.5%
C. ...10%
D. ...17%

7. With a 60% winning expectation-per-single-bet, the odds against going 4-0 are...
A. ...about 3-to-one
B. ...about 4-to-one
C. ...about 5-to-one
D. ...about 7-to-one

8. In football, that stat which best parallels a team's won-lost record is...
A. ...total yards gained/allowed.
B. ...penalties.
C. ...passing yards gained/allowed.
D. ...rushing yards gained/allowed.

9. Generally, the most significant football injury to a pro gambler happens to the...
A. ...quarterback
B. ...running back
C. ...wide receiver
D. ...center

10. The money management system most widely used by professional gamblers is:
A. The Kelly criterion
B. One-star, two-star, three-star system
C. A set percentage of their present bankroll
D. None of the above


ANSWERS

     Scoring the test is simple. Give yourself 10 points for every 'D' answer, 0 for anything else. Trouble is, any score less than 100 is a failing score. A professional-level sports bettor must know the answer to all the questions or sooner or later he'll be out of business.

QUESTION 1:  When laying 11 to win 10, approximately how much vigorish is paid by losing bettors?
       The answer is D...It's a loaded question. Losers don't pay any vigorish at all. Vigorish is always deducted from winnings.
       Here's a brief explanation: If two bettors were to bet $110 against one another without using the services of a bookmaker, the winner would walk away with $220. The loser would lose whatever he put at risk. (After all, he lost the bet.) Using a bookmaker, the winner walks away with only $210...The winner was charged 9.1 percent of his winnings by the bookmaker. (Casino games such as craps, roulette, blackjack, slots, etc., work the same way. Winners receive less than the "fair" amount.) Check our article, A Crash Course In Vigorish - And It's Not 4.55%

QUESTION 2: Against money lines, bookmakers make...
       The answer is D...Against money lines, bookmakers make nothing at all when favorites win. They make a profit only when underdogs win.
       Here's a brief explanation: If a favorite-bettor lays $150 to win $100 and a dog-bettor lays $100 to win $140 on the same proposition, the bookmaker receives a total of $250 from the two bettors. If the favorite wins, the bookmaker returns the $150 risked by the favorite-bettor plus the $100 won...The bookmaker keeps nothing of the $250. If the underdog wins, the bookmaker returns the $100 risked by the dog-bettor plus the $140 won...The bookmaker keeps $10 of the $250 risked by the two bettors. Bookmakers are usually cheering for the underdog.

QUESTION 3: A 3-bet parlay paying 6-to-1 has vigorish costs...
       The answer is D...Vigorish costs for a 3-bet parlay that pays 6-to-1 are slightly lower than the cost of three individual bets wherein the bettor lays 11 to win ten.
       Here's a brief explanation: If a bettor risks $100 to win $90.90 on a single bet, and wins, he then has $190.90 ...If he risks the whole $190.90 to win $173.50 on a second bet, and wins, he then has $364.40...If he risks the whole $364.40 to win $331.30 on a third bet, and wins, he ends up with $695.70.  If he risked the same original $100 on a 3-bet parlay at 6-to-1, and wins all three bets, he ends up with $700. The vigorish cost is actually about 4.35 percent, rather than the 4.55% cost of laying 11 to win ten. (But that's NOT why bookmakers don't advertise parlay bets. For one thing, parlay betting can protect your downside risk, and it is not in the bookmaker's best interest for you to protect your downside risk. See our article,  Parlays & Profit.)

QUESTION 4: Professional-level sports bettors expect to win...
       The answer is D...Full time gamblers expect to win fewer than 60% of those bets wherein they lay 11 to win ten. (In fact, a long term winning percentage of 60% or more is actually too high!)... Check our article, Winning Percentages, for a fuller explanation.)

QUESTION 5: On any single bet, professional-level sports bettors rarely risk more than...
       The answer is D...Professional-level bettors rarely risk more than 2% of their bankroll; usually much less. Professionalism demands that sports betting be regarded as a business, NOT a heart-stopping thrill ride.

QUESTION 6: When laying 12 to win 10, winnings are shorted by approximately...
       The answer is D...When laying 12 to win 10, winnings are shorted by 16.67 percent.
    Here's a brief explanation: If two bettors risked $120 against one another without using the services of a bookmaker, the winner would walk away with $240; - the $120 he put at risk, plus the $120 he won. Laying $120 to win $100, the winner walks away with only $220...The $120 he 'should' have won was shorted by $20...(16.67 percent).

QUESTION 7:  With a 60% winning expectation-per-bet, the odds against going 4-0 are...
       The answer is D....0.6 x 0.6 x 0.6 x 0.6 = 0.1296 (6.7-to-one).

QUESTION 8: In football, that stat which best parallels a team's won-lost record is...
       The answer is D...In football, that stat which correlates best with a team's won-lost record is the stat concerning rushing yards.

QUESTION 9:  Generally, the most significant football injury to a pro gambler happens to the...
       The answer is D...The most significant football injury to a professional handicapper is to the center. The center is a key part of the offense, but his injury rarely effects the pointspread. Pointspreads tend to compensate for the other listed injuries.

QUESTION 10:  The money management system most widely used by professional gamblers is...
       The answer is D...Genuine experts understand that progressive betting schemes are strictly for suckers. The size of your bets cannot be used as a pry-bar to earn more than you deserve. In fact, professional-level sports bettors strive to keep their bets at the same size. Having a slight advantage on every bet, the goal is to wear down your opponent. Note that varying the size of your bets against roulette and craps gives you your best chance of winning against those games because the odds are against you! The opposite is true against sports betting - so long as you've done your homework! How could the same tactic work in both scenarios? Blackjack players often espouse using different-sized bets against sports, but that's wrong. Note that against blackjack they ALWAYS advise using the SAME size bet against a PARTICULAR positive count. When the deck is giving them more than a 4 percent advantage, you can bet they ALWAYS advise risking the maximum bet. Against sports, we presume to ALWAYS have at least a 4 percent advantage, therefore our bet size never changes. Unlike blackjack, the "deck" is never against us, so we don't have to worry about betting a "minimum" bet; - when the odds are against you in sports you don't have to bet at all!    

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