is widely recognized as one of the world’s top sports
Times Magazine calls JV Miller “one of the last
legitimate handicappers-for-hire on the web.” JV is featured
regularly as a handicapping expert on television, radio, podcasts, and
speaks at seminars and educational institutions around the world. JV
finished first place in the Marina Bay Sands Millennium Million Dollar NFL
Contest against over one thousand professional handicappers.
Sports Betting Money Management
A successful sports betting
strategy begins with managing your bankroll.
To make a profit
long term betting sports you must treat it as you would any other business.
The old saying is that you should not use your rent money to bet with. This
is true; however, if you're betting sports for profit it is equally true
that you must not use your gambling bankroll to pay the rent.
When it comes to sports betting, each person may be trying to
accomplish something different. If your objective is merely entertainment,
then your goal is entirely different than my goal of making a profit. If
you bet $100 a game on Monday night football to enjoy the game, it will
cost you $5 a week if you can go 50-50. There is nothing wrong with this.
It's cheaper than a movie. But this is entertainment expense, not an
excellent investment vehicle.
In sports betting, your inventory is your cash. If you run out
of cash, you are out of business.
The amazing thing about sports betting is the return on
investment (ROI) that is possible. There is no magic. The return on
investment is a function of the winning percentage and the amount that is
invested. The amount invested is a function of the number of bets
(investments) and how much you lay on each bet. It is the same as any
business. How many widgets did you sell and how much did you gross per
Sports betting is the same as any business. How many widgets
did you sell and how much did you gross per widget?
We average around 1,500 plays per year. Most
professional-level sports bettors wager around one to two percent of their
beginning bankroll per bet. This is called a unit. The maximum
unit (bet size) should not exceed two percent of your bankroll. If my pain
tolerance is two percent, I would bet 2% of my bankroll on every bet. That
means I will bet two percent of my money 1,500 times...3,000% of my
bankroll. I will bet the same money thirty times in one year.
If I win 55% of my 1500 plays, I win 825 units and lose 675.
The bookmaker returns your 825 units wagered on the winners plus your
winning which are 751 units after you pay the vigorish – or a “broker” fee
to the sportsbook - of 74 units (see our free article A Crash Course in
Vigorish). Therefore, I win 76 units profit. (76 units @ 2% of my
bankroll is 152% of my bankroll. I more than double my money.)
articles you would enjoy:
Binomial Distribution and YOU
Moneyline Conversion Chart
Some people think they can make a living betting $100 a game.
Well, think about it. If they play 25 games a week, they will lay $2,500.
If they are good, they will win 14 games and lose 11. For the losing bets,
they forfeit $1,100. For the winning bets, the bookmaker returns their
original $1,400 plus $1,274 in winnings. This amounts to $174 profit –
clearly not enough to live from. Depending on your lifestyle, typically a
minimum unit of $300 to $400 is required to make a living betting sports;
although, this leaves little to grow the business. Remember you need a
$20,000 bankroll to play a $400 unit.
As soon as you can draw from the business, you should put
yourself on a salary. That way you can know what to expect for an income
and won't be bothered by the short-term vagaries of Lady Luck.
As soon as you can draw
from the business, you should put yourself on a salary.
After over thirty years, we know the number of plays we have
each year. We know our bet size. With 1,500 plays, the standard deviation
for our win percentage is 2. We know we win between 53% and 57%. Sounds
rather dull when we put it that way. And I guess it is. Bernard Baruch, the
great financier, said he always looked for boring businesses. They were
well run, without surprises and he knew what to expect.
I know what to expect. One great lesson we point out is that
with a 55% expectation, your bankroll would reach a new high only 5% of the
time. Nineteen out of 20 days you will be below your bankroll high. The
novice thinks you should have more money each day. I also know that with a
55%-win rate and 125 bets a month, I will lose money every 9th month. Good
money management is aided by knowing what to expect.
“Bernard Baruch, the great
financier, said he always looked for boring businesses. They were well run,
without surprises and he knew what to expect.” – R.J. Miller
As a final note on bet size, I should add that I use a plateau
I bet 2% of my bank and continue to flat bet until my bank
grows by at least 25%. Then I recalculate the 2%. Thus, if I started with
$10,000, I would bet $200 a game until my bank grows to at least $12,500.
At that point, I would refigure my unit to $250. I bet flat until I reach
at least $15,625. My actual risk-reward ratio doesn't get too high. The
other thing that I do that is unique and rather arguable is that I never
lower my bet. Remember, if you vary the bet, your breakeven goes up. At a
2% unit and three decades of experience, I am comfortable that I can ride
through a losing streak. If you lose 10 games at $200 a bet and lower the
bet to $180, you must win 12.2 bets to get back to even. This is how I get
my 100% annual ROI. My actual bet goes up during the year as my bankroll
reaches higher plateaus.
In a nutshell:
sports betting you don't wait for weeks or months to know if your
investment was successful. You get an answer in about three hours…you have
no time clock, no boss, no employees, no “customers',” no daily commute
battling traffic - none of the hassles of most everyone else you know.
3 Award-Winning Articles:
1. The Best Way to Gamble
2. A Crash Course in Vigorish
3. Could YOU Be a Professional Gambler?
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